The metamorphosis of the moderates

The smiling rebellion is beginning to understand that its face will freeze into a grimace at some point. The Spanish government is sticking to its guns, refusing to use dialogue as a political instrument, and its moderates are gripped by the Greek chorus’ call to defend Spain à la Don Quixote. A hurting, imperial Spain can be heard thundering; it is the State against the indomitable Gauls who resist in their village and must be attacked “by land, sea and air”. Fortunately —and thanks to wise, common decisions— the millennials of this democratic Spain went on an Erasmus scholarship and do not know who General Espartero was: Spain’s Duke of La Victoria went down in history for having stated that “Barcelona must be bombarded every 50 years to keep it in check”.

This week gave us a historic photograph when former Spanish presidents Felipe González, José María Aznar and José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero gathered in a Grosse Koalition of sorts against the Catalan referendum. The picture clearly shows how strong the cement that holds together such apparently different bodies is. The photo was meant for those in Spain who favour a heavy-handed approach and it should make the remnants of the Catalan socialist party uncomfortable. Not even Zapatero himself is willing to stand up for his own political legacy. Reality, reactionary forces and his own inability devoured his reforming intuition. Zapatero’s dismal management of the recession did the rest.

The strategy that led the PP government and the PSOE to jointly pass Spain’s new national security law is the same strategy which they share against the referendum on independence. This law would allow the Spanish government to strip Catalonia of some of its powers and appoint some sort of regional viceroy. If the Partido Popular believes that the secession vote is unfeasible, it is equally incomprehensible that it might think it possible to bring back a beefed up civil governor to Catalonia.

When calls to keep calm begin, things are about to turn ugly; simplification and demands to show uncritical support and close ranks come next. It is also the right time for everyone to contemplate the price of their freedom and its limits, as well as whether they must surrender to the plans of someone else's rage.

Within the Catalan government, the temperature hit boiling point with Jordi Baiget’s words (1). Up until then, he had been a discreet minister who was loyal to former president Artur Mas. Baiget publicly doubted whether the vote on October 1 was actually feasible and voiced his discomfort for being kept in the dark about the independence strategy. President Puigdemont wasted no time in sacking him and appointing a substitute: Santi Vila, the cabinet’s unorthodox minister. This was seen as treason by the moderates in Puigdemont’s PDECat party, as they fear not only the individual price to be paid over secession, but also what they regard as “the subsumption of the centre-right within ERC’s strategy”. The liberal centre has yet to rebuild its ideological edifice and it will not be easy because Catalonia’s political party system imploded a while ago and one cannot picture the post-referendum scenario in today’s terms. This reconstruction will be possible only once the conflict with Madrid and all related legal issues are resolved. Some within the PDCat can’t stomach the fact that ERC is reaping the benefits of the independence process while, so far, only the PDCat’s leadership have had to face a court of law over the 2014 non-binding referendum.

Meanwhile, Puigdemont and Mas will have to push their troops to the boundaries of their nature and distinguish between gung-ho tweeting and the actual position of a weary public opinion that, for now, is more outraged by Madrid than by its own leaders. On Saturday the PDCat closed ranks with Puigdemont, despite this week’s hiccups. Many realise that the time has come to put aside some of their values so as to fight for the main objective: to hold the referendum and support the president. But unity must be renewed every step of the way.

The success of secession relies on persuading those who harbour doubts, who are aware of the hurdles, who set themselves a limit. They are the ones whose loyalty towards the president is unwavering, but who wish for a ballot, not a revolution. They hope to hold a referendum that can be recognised or, at the very least, respected by Europe. The success of the referendum depends, to a point, on those who will turn out to vote provided that no fingers are pointed at them; on running a clean campaign and whether what is being offered is better and the debate does not insult their intelligence and is mindful of their rights. Exceptionalities are poisonous. If they are needed to call the referendum and stand up to Madrid’s open challenge, they will need to be clear, explicable within the European framework and respectful of the debate. In the 2017 eurozone, wars are fought with ballots. One man, one vote; and that’s that. The referendum will only be legitimate provided that the No voters and the undecided are respected.

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Translator’s note:

(1) Former Catalan Minister for Business Jordi Baiget was sacked recently following a newspaper interview in which he expressed doubts as to whether an independence vote would actually be held.