The unpredictable home stretch of Brexit

2 min

Four years after the British voted in a referendum to leave the European Union, the moment of truth has finally arrived. Before the end of the year, the post-Brexit negotiation extension ends, and there is no guarantee that it will end well, that is to say, with an agreement. In fact, if we take into account the chaotic history of recent years, we should not be surprised by a definitive and traumatic lack of agreement, which according to experts would be a very hard blow for a British economy already suffering from the uncertainties of an unplanned exit, which have only been increased by the pandemic. This would not only mean an economic disaster, but also a new political upheaval with two protagonists: Boris Johnson, who is increasingly weakened, and Nicola Sturgeon, who has new arguments to revive the Scottish independence process. In the case of Johnson and the Tories, whether or not there is an agreement, they face a complicated situation: a break leaves Johnson with an impoverished and internationally dislocated country, more so now that he can no longer play the card of Trump's support. And an agreement, even if it is a minimal, can generate a lot of criticism within the conservative ranks because it will mean giving in on controversial aspects such the rules of the game for British and European companies, territorial waters and fishing, or what authority will act as an arbitrator when problems arise in interpreting the agreements, a far from minor issue.

Be that as it may, the United Kingdom will be less united in 2021. Brexit has left many wounds that will be difficult to heal. The most obvious one is economic, of course. But social issues are no less painful or dangerous: anti-immigration discourse has made a traditionally mixed-race society more difficult, a country with many citizens from the former colonies but also from the European Union, whose situation is mired in uncertainty. In recent years, there has been a significant drain of talent and labour, for example of health workers, as has become apparent with covid-19.

What began as a frivolity by then PM David Cameron, when he announced the referendum in 2013, has now become the worst political crisis in recent British history. A crisis that will not end with the turn of the year. The negotiators in Brussels and London are now facing decisive weeks, yes, but whatever the outcome, the next few years will still be marked by the difficult management of agreements or the lack thereof. In the case of the United Kingdom, Brexit will remain the main headache of political, economic and social life. Beyond the division into two blocks, what has surely come to stay is disappointment for both sides: both for those who wanted to continue in Europe - an evident lost cause - and for those who wanted to leave without cost, which, obviously, neither has happened nor will happen.

More than managing Brexit, what is coming now is a long and heavy indigestion, very hard for the British, but not free of cost for the EU either. We will all have lost out.

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