Rifkin in Catalonia

Like any visionary Rifkin is overly naive and he wants us to move too fast

Miquel Puig
3 min
Uber manté conflictes amb els actors tradicionals i amb els seus propis conductors.

Jeremy Rifkin is one of the most influential thinkers of our time. Author of a dozen books, some of which have been global bestsellers, he was one of the first to popularize such concepts as the greenhouse effect (Entropy: A New World View, in 1980 and Biosphere Politics, 1991) the impact of a meat-based diet on climate change (Beyond Beef, 1993), the impact of automation on employment (The End of Work, 1995), the arrival of the sharing economy (The Age of Access, 2000) and the emergence of an economy based on very low production costs per unit (The Zero Marginal Cost Society, 2014). His most influential book, however, was The Third Industrial Revolution, published in 2011, which promised a new economy based on substituting fossil fuels with renewable energy and freely-shared knowledge. It is claimed, not without some foundation, that this book had a decisive impact on both Merkel and Li Keqiang. The former led Germany and its industry in its reorientation towards decarbonising industry, while the latter committed China to ratifying agreements on climate change.

The reasons for Rifkin’s success are twofold: his clarity and optimism.

Rifkin argues that every industrial revolution was the result of a combination of a source of power with a means of transmitting knowledge: a clear, simple and compelling explanation as to where we are and where we are headed.

The first industrial revolution was based on coal (which powered the steam engine) and the printing press; the second, on oil (which powered private vehicles and power stations) and electrical communications (the telegraph, the telephone and radio). The third will be the result of the confluence of renewable energy and the internet. Rifkin goes somewhat further and describes the "five pillars" required by the new energy paradigm: the substitution of the current means of generating electricity with renewable energy, the transformation of all buildings into mini power plants, the development of efficient energy storage technologies, the transformation of power grids into "smart" networks capable of supporting a bidirectional flow of energy, and finally, replacing our petrol-driven cars with electric vehicles. This third revolution, in contrast to the previous one, is characterized by decentralization (of energy sources) and selfless cooperation (of which Wikipedia and Linux are precedents).

As for his optimism, what for many is a cause of anxiety, for Rifkin they are simply harbingers of a new egalitarian, enlightened, prosperous society, at one with nature. We Europeans are particularly susceptible to Rifkin’s charms, since he, in turn, is enthusiastic about the European project, which he considers to be the first manifestation of the politics of the new era and superior to that which is found in the US.

This all makes reading and listening to Rifkin inspirational, as the Americans say, as no doubt it will be to see him next Wednesday in Sant Cugat, where he has been invited by Diplocat to give a talk.

Nevertheless, Rifkin does not merely aim to inspire; he also aims to help local, national and supranational governments plan and implement the transition from the current economy to a decarbonised one, and here I think we should be more cautious. After all, Rifkin was an advisor to Zapatero on his energy policy until the economic crisis forced him to scrap it, and today it is not considered a success.

The reasons why we ought to be cautious are the same that apply to any visionary: Rifkin is overly naive and he wants us to move too fast.

We have now begun to understand that in reality the sharing economy can mean replacing taxi drivers who paid taxes and made a reasonable living, with underpaid self-employed workers that do not pay taxes (neither they nor Uber). As for the zero marginal cost economy, what is taking place (as predicted by conventional economic theory) is that mega-monopolies (Amazon, Apple, Facebook, Google, Microsoft...) are behaving as such: abusing their power to evade their social responsibilities.

As for moving too fast, oil is now incredibly cheap, unlike when Rifkin published The Third Industrial Revolution, while energy storage technologies are still in their infancy.

It is good to listen to Rifkin, but it is also good to filter his enthusiasm: it was difficult to implement the second industrial revolution and it took a lot of effort to ensure that it supported a decent society.

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