Nearby horizons

Ferran Requejo
4 min

Despite all the limitations imposed by the State on the participatory vote of November 9, it was the first time in 300 years that Catalans voted on the independence of their nation. This event has strengthened the current political process in Catalonia. If it were a football match, you could say that Catalonia is winning 1-0 after scoring on November 9. The match isn't over, though. Now we are entering a new phase that might prove decisive. Everything suggests that we will start with snap regional elections. The pro-independence parties will be able to turn this vote into the citizens' decision that Spain didn't allow. That way these elections will replace the legal referendum that other more civilised multi-national democracies were able to hold legally (Canada, UK).

Some citizens might expect the State to propose a constitutional reform that is acceptable to a majority of Catalans. At any rate, it would have to be a joint proposal by the main Spanish political parties. If it came from only one, it would be yet another case of hollow rhetoric. The initiative ought to come from the State, not Catalonia. This is the conclusion that can be drawn from the recent Catalan Charter fiasco.

Apropos of this, below is a statement from 1896 by then-president Cánovas del Castillo speaking about a hypothetical independence of Cuba, only two years before it actually happened:

"Our relations with the USA? They are excellent, as are our relations with all other nations (...) I don't want to hear about mediation and half-measures; we won't cut a deal with the rebels (...) For as long as I'm in office, while I'm honoured to head this Cabinet, that will remain my policy. There'll be no reckless blustering: a calm firmness at home and no concessions abroad, not a step back, no weakness in front of anyone, no matter who. Reason and the law are on our side and we are forever determined to see them prevail (...) These are my thoughts ... and I don't think the Spanish people would forgive me if they were any different". (La Vanguardia, 21 November 1896)

Some things never change, not even in 118 years!

From the perspective of those who support the Catalan independence bid, here's how events might pan out in the phase that we are entering now: 1) pro-independence parties win the election with an absolute majority in parliament; 2) a new government is sworn in (presumably supported by a coalition of parties) with a independence programme that addresses the international angle; 3) to that effect, the necessary institutions and bodies are created; 4) proclamation of independence; 5) start of a constituent process led by the political representatives, incorporating procedures for citizens' participation (for further details, see report number 10 by the CATN (1): "The constituent process".)

Let's focus on steps 1 and 2.

1) Elections

As I argued in a previous article, I think that there are two criteria that the pro-independence parties should bear in mind: a) getting as many seats as possible in the next legislature and b) keeping the current president of Catalonia as the leader of the process. The first criterion requires a previous study --still to be carried out-- of the various electoral scenarios (unified candidacies, separate candidacies with common points in their manifesto, inclusion of independent candidates and members of grassroots groups and so on). The decision on the candidacies is an important one. I believe it should be an informed one, too. Standard political analyses would advise separate candidacies, but in this case we do not know the foreseeable quantification of the dynamical effects (centrifugal and centripetal) of a unified candidacy.

The second criterion (keeping the current Catalan president at the helm) is based both on questions of home politics --the effects of a leadership change are rather unpredictable-- as well as on matters of foreign policy --a change of leader halfway through the game would be ill understood--.

These two criteria might appear to be somewhat contradictory, but it needn't be so. Prior to the elections, I believe that CDC and ERC should agree on four fundamental points: a) the general make-up of a new government --if they win the elections-- that should be open to other pro-independence parties; b) the government's goals (sorting out the priorities); c) the main procedural and strategic decisions; and d) a calendar that may be reviewed as they go along.

2) The new government

We will need a strong government that brings together politically and professionally outstanding individuals, with international experience in their field. In fact, international action should become one of the new government's main priorities. Some things have been accomplished already, but greater breadth and depth of action is needed. The creation of a Foreign Ministry seems like a wise idea.

Together with the day-to-day decisions and running of the country, the two most important challenges facing the new government will be setting up the instruments of the new state leading to the proclamation of independence and the management of the timing of the process; that is, deciding the most suitable time for the proclamation. That will be the moment when we will disconnect from Spain's legality and institutions. We must be ready. These are difficult jobs that require a careful balance and will occur still within the context of a hostile legality and the usual budgetary restrictions and financial suffocation from Madrid. What about the criminal charges filed by Spain's Public Prosecutor against president Mas? We'll see what the Catalan High Court has to say about it. For now, I'd ignore the matter.

We are living in an extraordinary time. Our nation and its people need the Catalan political parties to rise to the challenge. This is a time for generosity, dependability, professionalism and trustworthy agreements. We must keep a brisk pace but without haste that might jeopardize the main objective of the process: freedom for our nation to build a democratic state of law of a high standard and to decide our own interdependencies in a global world.

Ferran Requejo is Professor of Political Science at Universitat Pompeu Fabra

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(1) N.T. CATN in Catalan stands for Advisory Council for the National Transition

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